Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, Happy New Year and welcome to my January 2025 Market Update! Today, we’re going “Back to the Future” to look at what’s happening in our local real estate market—and where we might be heading this year. Now, my crystal ball’s been in the shop for a while, so I’m forced to rely on real data and patterns from the past decade, as well as a few notable curveballs we saw in 2024—like the election, the Fed playing with interest rates, and mortgage rate fluctuations that didn’t always seem intuitive.
As you’ll recall, in 2024 we had a big election that caused a noticeable pause in market activity.
Many buyers and sellers felt uncertain until that was resolved. In addition, mortgage interest rates didn’t follow the Fed’s lead quite as one would expect—mortgage rates went up even after the Fed lowered its own rate twice. But, what’s interesting, is that as soon as people realized rates weren’t going back to 2021 levels, they jumped back into the market.
So now that consumers are back to normal behavior, the market activity went back to being driven by those two classic forces in real estate: supply and demand.
Let me show you this chart that I’ve been studying. Right now, you’ll see only the BLUE line, which shows the cyclical pattern of Closed Sales for single family homes in King County from 2014 through 2024. Notice how every year, the number of sales spikes in spring and summer, then cools off toward the end of the year. That shape has remained remarkably consistent since even before 2014. But the bigger question is how many total homes sell within that cycle—and that’s where the scale of activity really matters.
Now, watch as I overlay the ORANGE bar that shows the Annual Combined Closed Sales for each year. You’ll see we hit a record high of nearly thirty thousand single-family homes sold in 2021, then a big drop to around twenty-two thousand in 2022 and crashing down to 16,611 in 2023. I’m sure that you’ll agree that this is pretty dramatic!
Last year we inched up to just under eighteen thousand single family home sold, which is better than 2023 but still way below what we’d call “normal” levels. Whether this means the market is reversing course or just catching its breath, time will tell.
By the way, if you want to look at this data and read my report at your pace and leisure, you’ll find all this information in my January newsletter, available online and for download, for free, at Weisbarth.com/Newsletter, that’s Weisbarth.com/Newsletter.
So, what about 2025? Early indicators suggest buyers are actively searching for a good home, motivated by rising rents, the return-to-office mandates, and the possibility of refinancing later if rates drop. Sellers, however, aren’t rushing to list quite yet. Many are locked into those historically low mortgage rates and, understandably, are hesitant to give them up. That means supply might stay tight, and if demand significantly outpaces new listings, prices could climb at a fast pace.
And we can’t forget new construction. Builders face material costs, labor shortages, and shifting economic conditions that can speed things up or slow them down. If fewer new homes come to market, that feeds directly into our ongoing shortage and puts upward pressure on prices.
So, in short, 2025 looks like it’ll continue testing the balance between supply and demand. Buyers are eager, often willing to jump in despite higher rates, while sellers remain cautious about giving up their low-rate mortgages. Throw in the uncertainties around new construction, and it’s a recipe for a market that could see steady—or even rapid—price growth unless inventory levels improve.
So if you or someone you know is thinking about making a move this year, let’s talk! My team and I use real data to help you navigate these ups and downs—no crystal ball required. Preparation and timing are everything, and we’ve got the numbers and strategies to back that up. Reach out by email, text, or—my favorite—a good old-fashioned phone call to 206-779-9808, that’s 206-779-9808.
And as always, a big plug to Akin, the local organization that helps take care of kids and families in need. We at Weisbarth & Associates donate a substantial amount from every sale to this amazing organization and have been for eight years now. So your business your referral make a direct, positive impact on the people at Akin.
Thanks for tuning in! Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and follow for more updates. And, again, if you’d like to read my newsletter or share it with a friend, you can find it at Weisbarth.com/newsletter.
I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, Happy New Year and here’s to making 2025 a year of smart moves and bright possibilities. See you next time!