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Is Seattle Real Estate Really Falling? Here's What the Data Says | June Vlog Real Estate Update

Is Seattle Real Estate Really Falling? Here's What the Data Says | June Vlog Real Estate Update

Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, and welcome to my June 2026 Market Update! I don't normally spend much time responding to media coverage of real estate. Part of that is because market data and headlines often serve two very different purposes. One is trying to inform you. The other is trying to get you to click. And let's be honest, a headline that says, "The Seattle housing market is behaving pretty much the way it usually does" isn't going to set the internet on fire. But over the past few weeks I've seen several articles suggesting that Seattle-area home prices are falling, that the market is weakening, and people are leaving Seattle and King County in large numbers. And after seeing enough of those stories, I found myself wondering whether we were all looking at the same data. Because when I pull up the actual date from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data, which is the source of where all these housing numbers come from in the first place, I see a very different picture. Let me show you what I'm seeing. So, if all those headlines were correct, I'd expect to see buyer activity falling, prices softening, homes sitting on the market longer, and generally a market that was struggling to find its footing. Instead, what I see is pending sales reaching their highest level in about three years. We see median home prices continuing to trend upward. And we see homes selling relatively quickly, with the median home spending just seven days on the market. All this is suggesting that the market is actually very, very active. The buyers are out there shopping. Now, I want to be careful here because I'm not suggesting that every home sells in seven days or that every segment of the market is equally strong. Real estate is always more nuanced than that. But when I step back and look at the broader picture, to me it doesn't look much like a market in decline. And that's where context becomes really important. You see, real estate markets have seasonal patterns. Inventory rises and falls throughout the year. Buyer and seller activity rises and falls throughout the year. Prices accelerate and then level off and then accelerate again. And withing that larger seasonal and consumer behavior patterns there are still more subtle variations. That is normal. The problem is that if you ignore those patterns, it's surprisingly easy to create a narrative that sounds convincing, but isn't actually telling the whole story—and certainly not the correct story. Compare the wrong months. Focus on a single statistic. Ignore seasonality. And suddenly you can make a healthy market look troubled. That's one of the reasons I spend so much time looking at month-over-month trends an well as at longer-term trends, instead of relying entirely on a simple year-over-year comparisons. The context matters every bit as much as the numbers themselves. And just as importantly, you need to understand what's influencing buyer and seller behavior at different times of the year. The numbers matter, of course, but so does the psychology behind those numbers. And honestly, to me, the most remarkable part of this entire story isn't that the market is strong. It's that the market is behaving so normally. Think about everything we've been through over the past year or so. Inflation concerns. Interest-rate uncertainty. Tariffs. Stock market volatility. Wars. Political drama. Tech layoffs. There has been no shortage of reasons for buyers and sellers to feel nervous. And yet somehow the Greater Seattle area housing market continues to follow many of the same seasonal patterns that we've seen for well over a decade. That's actually pretty remarkable when you think about it. By the way, if you'd like to look at these charts yourself and dig deeper into the data, you can find my complete June newsletter online and available for free download at Weisbarth.com /newsletter. That's Weisbarth.com /newsletter. One of the arguments I've seen lately is that inventory is rising and therefore the market must be weakening. At first glance, that sounds reasonable. After all, if there are more homes for sale, doesn't that mean demand must be falling? Well... not necessarily. I was curious to see how today's inventory compares to what we considered normal before all the craziness of the past few years, and what I found was that inventory is still below much of what we saw throughout the 2010s. In other words, yes, buyers have more choices today than they've had recently. But that's very different from saying we suddenly have too many homes for sale. In fact, for years one of the biggest complaints from buyers was that there weren't enough homes to choose from. They'd wait for a home to come on the market, rush out to see it, compete against ten other buyers, lose, and then start the process all over again. Okay, my clients would actually win those multiple bids most of the time, but that's a different story. Thank you, you can hold your applause. A little more inventory isn't necessarily a sign of trouble. In many ways it's a sign of a healthier and more balanced market. Buyers have a better chance of finding the right home, sellers still have active demand, and the market functions more efficiently because people can actually compare options instead of fighting over the same handful of listings. And then there was another headline that caught my attention. The idea that people are leaving Seattle and King County in droves. Come on.... Whenever I hear a claim like that, my first instinct is usually the same: let's go look at the numbers. And when I did, I found that Seattle very recently surpassed 800,000 residents after adding roughly 11,500 residents over the past year. In fact, Seattle remains one of the fastest-growing major cities in the entire nation, even if that growth isn't quite as dramatic as it was during some of the boom years. To me, that doesn't sound much like a city that's emptying out. So the broader story continues to be one of growth rather than decline. Which brings us back to where we started. The more I looked into these stories, the more I kept coming back to the same conclusion: the headlines and the data simply aren't telling the same story. The headlines tell a story of decline. The data tells a story of a market that continues to be strong and behave remarkably normally. Almost boringly so. And honestly, I think that's the real story. Despite all the uncertainty, despite all the noise, despite all the reasons people have to feel nervous, the local housing market continues to behave in a surprisingly normal and seasonally predictable way. And that's important because buying and selling homes isn't just about economics. It's also about psychology. It's about how people feel about their situation today and about their confidence in their future. You've heard me say this many times before: a confused mind will do nothing. And what's not often said is that when confusion causes us to freeze, we tend to assume that everyone else is doing the same thing. But life doesn't really work that way, does it? People still get married. People still get divorced. Families grow, kids leave home, jobs change, people retire, and sometimes people simply wake up one morning and realize the house that worked perfectly a few years ago doesn't really fit their lifestyle anymore. Life keeps moving forward whether the headlines are optimistic or pessimistic. And because of that, housing demand tends to keep moving forward too. So if you're thinking about buying or selling this year—or if you know someone who is—I would encourage you to focus a little less on the headlines and a little more on the underlying data. Because that's where the real story is. My team and I use real NWMLS data, proven systems, and years of local market insights and experience to help our clients make confident decisions that maximize their results. And remember, when you work with us, you're also helping support Akin, an amazing nonprofit that helps kids and families in need thrive. Your business and your referrals make a real difference in our community, and we're incredibly proud to be part of that mission. For a no-obligation consultation—or if you'd simply like to bounce around some ideas—reach out to me by email, text, or, my favorite, a good old-fashioned phone call at 206-779-9808. That's 206-779-9808. Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and follow for more updates, and be sure to check out the full June newsletter at Weisbarth.com /newsletter. I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Welcome to summer, welcome World Cup, and I'll see you next month.
May Market Update Vlog | Weisbarth & Associates

May Market Update Vlog | Weisbarth & Associates

Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, and welcome to my May 2026 Market Update! You know, if a Martian landed in Seattle and looked only at our real estate data from the past several years, they’d probably conclude that nothing particularly unusual is happening here. Which is kind of amazing when you think about it. Because meanwhile, down on Earth, we’ve had inflation spikes, rapidly changing interest rates, wars, tech layoffs, tariffs, political uncertainty, stock market volatility, and enough economic chaos to make people’s heads spin. And yet somehow, the local housing market continues to behave in a surprisingly normal and seasonally predictable way. Honestly, after the last few years, that may be the strangest thing of all. If we look at the King County single-family home market, the overall trends remain remarkably healthy and normal for this time of year. Pending sales continue to rise seasonally, new listings are increasing as more sellers enter the market, and median prices climbed steadily from their winter lows through early spring — exactly what we’d typically expect to see this time of year. Now, one thing that really stands out to me is inventory. The number of homes for sale is now sitting at levels we haven’t seen since before COVID. Buyers finally have more choices again, and I think that’s one of the main reasons prices have remained relatively restrained compared to the pandemic frenzy years. And honestly, I think that’s probably healthier. Homes that are well-prepared, properly marketed, and priced strategically are still selling quickly. Buyers are still active. Life events continue happening. People still need homes. But buyers now have a little more breathing room, and sellers need to be more strategic than they did a few years ago, when almost anything would sell instantly with twelve offers and someone waiving their firstborn child as part of the contract. Okay… maybe not literally. But it was getting close there for a while. And by the way, if you’d like to study these charts more closely and read my full report at your own pace, you can find my complete May newsletter for free at Weisbarth.com/newsletter — that’s Weisbarth.com/newsletter. Now, there was one interesting little wrinkle in the data this month that caught my attention. If you look at this second chart, the blue line represents King County median prices, while the orange line represents Seattle median prices. For quite a while now, these two lines have been tracking each other very closely. Historically, Seattle often outperformed the broader county — especially on prices — but over the past several years the surrounding market has largely caught up, and the data between the two has looked surprisingly similar. But this month we saw a small divergence. Seattle median prices actually rose about 1.5% month-over-month, while King County prices declined roughly 4.3% during the same period. Now, before anybody panics or starts making grand predictions — this may ultimately mean absolutely nothing. Median price data can be noisy month-to-month depending on the mix of homes that sold. Sometimes a higher concentration of luxury homes or lower-priced homes can temporarily skew the numbers. But I was curious to see it because we really haven’t seen much separation between Seattle and the broader county lately. And interestingly, that divergence doesn’t really show up in the other metrics. Pending sales, new listings, and overall activity levels still look very similar between the two markets. So for now, I’d categorize this less as “a trend” and more as “something interesting to watch.” And honestly, that’s one of the reasons I focus so much on month-over-month movement and broader market behavior instead of dramatic headlines. Real estate markets are emotional, cyclical, and sometimes noisy in the short term. One isolated number rarely tells the full story. What still seems much more meaningful to me is that buyers continue adapting to uncertainty remarkably well. For a while, every new headline seemed capable of freezing the market. And sometimes that still happens temporarily — because as I often say, a confused mind will do nothing. But increasingly, buyers and sellers seem to be adjusting psychologically to the idea that uncertainty itself may simply be part of normal life now. And that’s probably one reason the market has remained surprisingly resilient despite everything happening around us. If the normal seasonal patterns continue, there’s a good chance prices either peak this month or sometime in early summer before we gradually move into the typical late-summer slowdown. Of course, unusual economic events could always change the trajectory. But at least for now, the market appears stubbornly committed to behaving normally. So if you’re thinking about buying or selling this year, strategy matters more than ever. For sellers, proper pricing, presentation, preparation, and marketing have become critically important again — which is exactly why our proven 5-step seller system was designed for markets like this. And for buyers, having a clear strategy, understanding your priorities, and being fully prepared before the right home appears can make all the difference — especially as good homes still move very quickly. That’s a major part of our proven 3-step buyer system. And remember, when you work with our team, your business and referrals also help support Akin and the amazing work they do helping kids and families in need throughout our community. If you’d like help analyzing your specific situation, my team and I are always happy to offer a no-obligation consultation. And honestly, the best way to reach me is still the old-fashioned way — just pick up the phone and give me a call directly at 206-779-9808. That’s 206-779-9808. And if you know someone thinking about buying or selling, feel free to refer them my way as well. Thanks again for watching! Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and follow for more updates. And once again, you can always read my full newsletter and see all the charts at Weisbarth.com/newsletter — that’s Weisbarth.com/newsletter. I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, and I’ll see you next time!
April Market Update Vlog

April Market Update Vlog

Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, and welcome to my April 2026 Market Update! Just when it seemed like the world might finally be settling down—even for a moment—the local, national, and global craziness ramped up again. To the long list of crazy news we can now add a war in the Middle East, rising energy costs, a slumping stock market, and elevated interest rates. Great! So how does all of this affect our real estate market—and specifically your ability to buy or sell a home? Well, as it turns out, buyers may be settling in—even if the world around them isn’t. If you take a look at this chart, you’ll see something pretty surprising. Pending sales—homes that have received an offer and are waiting to close— depicted here in orange, rose sharply in March and are now higher than at any point last year, including the usual peak months in the second quarter. They’re up 47% from last month and about 5.5% higher than this time last year. Inventory levels have also increased by roughly 50% year over year. And with such a large increase in inventory you’d expect to see an easing in home prices, but that hasn’t happened. Median sales prices, depicted here in dark blue, are very much on the rise. And medians days on market dropped from 10 days last month to 7 day this month. Now, all of this follows the exact market pattern that we’ve seen for over 15 years now. And again, this is all despite all the worrying headlines. So what’s going on here? My hypothesis is that the usual surge of buyers who entered the market at the beginning of the year ran straight into the lowest inventory levels of the year. As a result, many of them found themselves in multiple-offer situations, losing out on one home after another. So far, this follows the annual pattern to a T. But you see, by the time the bad news hit, the buyers’ mindset had already shifted toward making a purchase, and so they persevered despite all the negative headlines. At some point, their need for a good home simply outweighed their fear. And that may be the most interesting part of what we’re seeing right now. Because not that long ago, buyers would have been spooked by far less dramatic events, often bringing market activity to a halt. Today, something different seems to be happening. The need for a good home appears to be outweighing the uncertainty created by all the unsettling news. You see, life keeps moving forward—families grow, jobs change, and plans don’t always wait for perfect conditions. By the way, if you want to take a closer look at this data and the full analysis, you can find it in my April newsletter, available online and for download, for free, at Weisbarth.com/newsletter—that’s Weisbarth.com/newsletter. So the question becomes: is this just a moment, or is this becoming the new normal? Well, time will tell whether this trend continues, but we should have a clearer picture over the next month or so as the spring market unfolds. In the meantime, one thing is becoming clear: even in the face of uncertainty, buyers are not standing still. In many cases, they’re moving forward anyway, because they’ve realized the cost of waiting has become greater than the cost of acting. So if you’re thinking about buying or selling this year—or if you know someone who is—this is actually very good news. This spring is shaping up to be very much in line with the normal trends that we’ve seen for many, many years. And the important part is that early in the cycle is often when the best opportunities appear. My team and I use real data, proven systems, and on-the-ground experience to help our clients position themselves ahead of the market, not chase it. And remember, when you work with us, you’re also helping support Akin, an amazing nonprofit that helps kids and families in need thrive. Your business and referrals make a real difference in the community, and we’re incredibly proud to be part of that mission. For a no-obligation consultation—or if you just want to explore your options or bounce around some ideas—reach out by email, text, or, my favorite, a good old-fashioned phone call at 206-779-9808. That’s 206-779-9808. Thanks for watching! Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and follow for more updates, and be sure to check out the full April newsletter at Weisbarth.com/newsletter. I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates—and I’ll see you next month.

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