Doron's Vlog

Hi, I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, and welcome to my October 2026 Market Update! You know, for the past several months, I've been watching our local housing market, hoping to see some indication that this growing inventory of homes for sale is just a temporary phenomenon. Well... so far, the market hasn't been particularly cooperative. Month after month, inventory keeps growing, and I'm beginning to think we may be witnessing something we haven't seen in nearly fifteen years. And while the numbers I'm going to show you are from King County, we're seeing very similar trends in Snohomish and Pierce Counties as well. So, just how significant is this change? Well, in September, King County reached 4.2 months of housing inventory. And to put that into perspective, we haven't seen that much inventory since the first quarter of 2012, as we were finally coming out of the great recession of 2008! Just to explain, months of inventory is essentially a measure of how long it would take to sell all the homes currently available on the market, based on the current pace of sales. Generally speaking, anything below four months is considered a seller's market, between four and six months is a balanced market, and above six months is a buyer's market. So, after nearly fifteen years of living in a market that overwhelmingly favored sellers, we've finally crossed into balanced-market territory. And that raises an interesting question. Where have all the buyers gone? Well... that's the funny thing. They haven't really gone anywhere! Let me show you what I mean. Take a look at these two graphs. They both cover the King County single-family home market. The top graph shows the number of homes available for sale in September of each of the past three years. The bottom graph shows the average monthly number of homes going under contract, or pending sales, from January through September of those same years. Let's start with the top graph. In September 2024, there were about 3,600 homes available for sale. A year later, that number had grown to just under 4,700. And this September, we reached just past 6,000 homes. That's an increase of almost 69% in available homes in just two years! Now, if you saw that number by itself, you might reasonably assume that buyers had simply stopped buying homes. After all, we've been hearing about high interest rates, tech layoffs, affordability problems, and all the other reasons people might be reluctant to buy. But here's where things get interesting. This graph shows the average number of pending homes. For each year, I took the total number of pending sales from January through September and divided it by nine. So these bars show the average number of pending sales per month. Remember, pending sales are a pretty good indication of how many buyers are actually purchasing homes that month. In 2024, we averaged 1,626 pending sales per month. In 2025, it was 1,631. And this year, we're averaging 1,557. So, while the number of homes available for sale has increased by almost 69%, buyer activity has declined by only about 4%. Hardly a decline at all. In other words, buyers haven't disappeared. They're still buying homes at pretty much the same pace they have been for the past couple of years. What's changed is the number of homes they have to choose from. And that changes the entire psychology of the market. Think about it. For years, buyers were conditioned to move quickly, make aggressive offers, and sometimes compromise on things that mattered to them, just to win the deal. Today, those same buyers have considerably more options. They can take their time, compare properties, and be much more selective about what they're willing to buy and how much they're willing to pay. And when they do make an offer, they're negotiating aggressively in their own interest, rather than the seller's. Now, here's something I've noticed while touring homes with my buyer clients. A surprising number of the properties we've visited just aren't all that appealing. Now, that's anecdotal, of course, but it makes me wonder how much of this growing inventory actually consists of homes that buyers really want. And that brings us to pricing. You know, a home doesn't have to be perfect to sell. Buyers have always been willing to accept certain shortcomings, whether it's an outdated kitchen, an awkward floor plan, or a less-than-ideal location. I always say that buying a home is really a process of self-discovery. Because the truth is, you're probably never going to find a home that has absolutely everything you want. There's always some compromise involved. And as a buyer, part of that process is figuring out which features are really important to you, and which ones you're willing to compromise on. But the price has to reflect those shortcomings. When buyers had very few choices, they were often willing to overlook things that bothered them. Today, with so many alternatives available, they're much less inclined to make those compromises unless they're getting something in return, usually in the form of a lower price or other financial concession from the seller. And we're already seeing home prices trending below last year's levels. Even a very attractive, well-presented home can struggle if the asking price doesn't reflect current market conditions. Meanwhile, homes that buyers find desirable and that are priced competitively can still generate strong interest. So we're seeing some homes sell relatively quickly, while others sit on the market for months. By the way, if you'd like to stay informed about what's happening in our local housing market, I invite you to subscribe to my free monthly newsletter at Weisbarth.com/Newsletter. Every month, I share market updates like this one, along with useful information about buying, selling, and owning a home here in the Greater Seattle area. So, what does all of this mean if you're thinking about buying or selling a home? Well, if you're a buyer, I think this is an excellent time to be looking. You've got more homes to choose from, less competition, and considerably more negotiating leverage than we've seen in years. And with prices softening, I think there are some very good opportunities out there right now. In fact, if you're planning to buy a home, I'd encourage you to seriously consider doing so before the end of the year, if that's practical for you. Now, if you're a seller, my advice is a little different. If you have the flexibility to wait, I'd seriously consider holding off until the first quarter of 2027. Our housing market has a very consistent seasonal pattern. Inventory typically reaches its lowest point early in the year, just as buyer activity begins to pick up. That combination tends to shift the advantage pretty strongly back toward sellers. Of course, there's no guarantee that next year will follow the same pattern. But it's something we've seen repeatedly over the years, and I think it's worth considering when deciding when to put your home on the market. Now, every situation is different. And whether you're buying or selling, timing is only one part of a successful strategy. That's why we've developed our proven three-step buyer system and five-step seller system, designed to help our clients make informed decisions and achieve the best possible results, regardless of market conditions. So, if you or someone you know is thinking about buying a home, selling your current home, or perhaps doing both, I'd be happy to help you explore your options and figure out the best timing and strategy. Just email, text, or best of all, call me at 206-779-9808. That's 206-779-9808, for a no-obligation consultation. Let's talk about what makes the most sense for you. And remember, when you work with our team, you're also helping the community. We've been proud supporters of Akin, a local organization that helps children and families thrive. Your business and referrals help us make a real difference in our community. Please remember to like, follow, and subscribe. And don't forget our monthly newsletter, filled with original market analysis, insights, and practical advice. Just visit Weisbarth.com/Newsletter. That's Weisbarth.com/Newsletter. Thanks for watching. I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Have a spooooky Halloween and I'll see you next month!

Hi, I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, and welcome to my September 2026 Market Update! So... are we normal again? The short answer is: I'm not so sure. August gave us a collection of signals that don't fit neatly into a single story. Some of what happened looked like a pretty normal transition from summer into fall. Other parts were anything but normal. And rather than try to force all of that into a nice, clean explanation, let me show you what actually happened. This graph compares what happened in our King County single-family home market from July to August this year with what typically happens during that same period, based on data from the previous ten years. The blue bars show the change this year, in 2026, and the gray bars show the typical July-to-August changes of years past. We’re going to look at each one of these measured items more closely, and as you look across these six measurements, you'll see why I'm having a hard time calling August normal. Let's start with sellers. New listings dropped 19% from July to August. Now, listings normally decline this time of year, so the fact that they fell isn't particularly surprising. What's unusual is how much they fell. Typically, we'd expect a decline of about 9%. This year, it was more than twice that. But while sellers were pulling back, buyers actually became more active. Pending sales — homes that went under contract during the month — increased nearly 7%. Typically, they decline about 2% from July to August. And we see something similar when we look at showings. Showings per listing increased 7%, compared with essentially no change in a typical year. So we had fewer new homes coming onto the market, more homes going under contract, and more buyers showing up to see homes for sale. You might look at those three numbers and think, "Okay, the market is strengthening." Except... then we get to prices and days on market. Median prices fell 7.4% from July to August. Again, a decline in August isn't unusual, but typically it's only about 1.4%. And homes took considerably longer to sell. Median days on market went from 11 days in July to 17 days in August. That's a 55% increase, compared with a typical increase of about 15%. That’s a huge change. And then, after all of that, look at what happened to the number of homes for sale. It declined 3.8% — remarkably close to the typical August decline of 2.9%. So that's August for you. Fewer sellers. More pending sales. More showings. Lower prices. Longer market times. And, somehow, a fairly normal decline in the number of homes available for sale. Those things don't necessarily contradict one another. But they also don't give us a nice, clean answer like, "The market is getting stronger," or, "The market is getting weaker." We can see very clearly what buyers and sellers did in August. What's much harder to tell from one month's data is what was driving those decisions. One possibility is that lower prices encouraged some buyers to act. Both pending sales and showings increased as prices declined. But I want to be careful with that explanation because median prices can also change simply because of the mix of homes that happen to sell in a particular month. So just because those things happened at the same time does not mean one event necessarily caused the other. Another possibility is that we're finally seeing the normal transition into the late summer-early fall market. Normally, new listings peak in the spring and then decline as we move through summer. But this year, listings remained remarkably steady from April all the way through July. It wasn't until August that we finally saw that drop. And, of course, several things could be happening at once, which, actually, would not surprise me at all. Price, selection, interest rates, consumer confidence, individual circumstances — all of those can affect when someone decides it's time to buy or sell. So August gave us plenty of information about what happened. Figuring out what it all means is going to require a little more time. By the way, if you'd like to spend a little more time looking at this data and reading the full analysis, you'll find everything in my September newsletter, available online and for download, for free, at Weisbarth dot com forward slash newsletter. That’s Weisbarth dot com forward slash newsletter. Okay, so what am I going to be keeping my eyes on in the next few months? Easy — pending sales! Pending sales are one of our better leading indicators because they tell us what buyers are doing right now, rather than closed sales, which tell us what buyers were doing several weeks ago. And that's what makes September particularly interesting. If buyer activity remains stronger than its normal seasonal pattern in the coming months, then August may turn out to have been a harbinger rather than an anomaly. But if it doesn't, then August may simply have been one unusual month. We’ll find out soon enough. So... are we normal again? Maybe. Some familiar seasonal patterns returned in August. Others didn't. And right now, we simply don't have enough information to know whether we're seeing the beginning of a meaningful shift or just one unusual month. For now, I'd rather watch what happens next than pretend the data is telling us something it isn't. And if you or someone you know are thinking about buying or selling, uncertainty doesn't necessarily mean you should wait. It means your strategy matters. At Weisbarth & Associates, we've developed a three-step system for buyers and a five-step system for sellers designed to help our clients make good decisions based on the market we actually have. If you have questions, specific or general, you can reach out through this website, email me, text me, or, my favorite, pick up the phone and give me a call directly at 206-779-9808. That’s 206-779-9808. I love talking with old friends and new ones, truly! What’s more, your business and your referrals truly make a difference in our community! Every time we help someone buy or sell a home, we make a donation to Akin, an amazing nonprofit that helps children and families thrive throughout our community. Thanks for watching. If you find this information helpful, remember to like, subscribe, and follow for more updates. You can also subscribe to my monthly newsletter at Weisbarth dot com forward slash newsletter. I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Enjoy the beginning of our fall season, and I’ll see you next month!

Hi, I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, and welcome to my July 2026 Market Update! If you've been wondering why the market feels different this year, the answer isn't because buyers disappeared. It's because sellers finally showed up. You know, over the past several years we've all lived through higher interest rates, inflation, stock market swings, political uncertainty, and no shortage of headlines predicting that the housing market was about to come to a screeching halt. But when I look at the actual data from our local multiple listing service, the NWMLS, I keep coming back to the same conclusion. The buyers never really left. In fact, they kept buying homes. So what’s changed this year isn't demand, it's supply. Let me show you what I mean. This chart really tells the whole story. Bur before we look at the numbers, let me explain what you're looking at. The orange line represents pending sales of single-family homes in King County, or in other words, the number of homes buyers put under contract each month, but had not yet close. The blue line shows the median sales price of those homes. And the green bars represent the average number of new listings that came onto the market during the second quarter of each year. Meaning, if you add up the number of new listings in April, May and June of each year, divide by three, that’s the number. And while I use the data from King County, these trends hold in other counties in our area as well. Now, don't worry about every little bump and wiggle in the lines. Instead, step back and look at the bigger picture, because what we’re looking for are the trends. The trends tell us what's really happening in the market and how buyer and sellers are behaving. The first thing that jumps out at me is the information in the orange line. Despite everything that's happened over the past four years, buyer activity has remained remarkably consistent. The dotted orange line shows the trendline for this data, and you can see how nice and perfectly horizontal it is. Yes, there are the normal seasonal ups and downs, but overall buyers have continued buying homes at a very steady rate. Now compare that with the green bars. Remember, each green bar represents the average number of new listings each month during the second quarter of that year. Here the dotted green line shows the trendline for this data. You can see how it’s inclined up, because every year these green lines have gotten taller. To put this in real number, back in 2023, the average number of new listings during the second quarter was just over 2,150 homes per month. A year later it increased to almost 2,600. Last year it climbed above 3,000. And this year we're averaging more than 3,200 new listings each month. That's about a fifty percent increase in just four years. And that's a pretty remarkable shift in such a short period of time. At the same time, as I mentioned earlier, buyer activity has remained surprisingly steady. So when you put those two trends together, the result is exactly what you'd expect. Inventory naturally increases. Today we're sitting at about three-and-a-half months of inventory. Now, compared with the past few years, that's a noticeable increase. Historically, though, it's still generally considered a seller's market. The difference is that buyers finally have more choices than they've had in quite some time. And honestly, I think that's healthier for everyone. Buyers now have time to compare several homes before making one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives. By the way, if you'd like to spend a little more time looking at this chart and reading the full analysis, you'll find everything in my July newsletter, available online and for download, for free, at Weisbarth.com/newsletter. That's Weisbarth.com/newsletter. Now, don't get the impression that homes aren't selling. Good homes—properly priced and marketed—are still selling quickly. But the market does seem increasingly divided. And that’s another interesting consequence of all this. Some homes are selling very quickly, while others take longer. But they do sell, and that’s an important things to understand. As for prices, they're still slightly lower than they were a year ago, but they're continuing to move upward month-over-month, which is exactly what we'd expect during the spring and early summer market. So here’s an interesting question for you: why are more homeowners finally deciding to sell? My honest answer is... I don't know. I have some theories about it though. One possibility is that many homeowners postponed moving after locking in those historically low mortgage rates a few years ago. And that certainly made sense at the time. But, you see, eventually life catches up with all of us. Whether it’s a change in the family size, or change in jobs, retirement, or some other circumstance. Life doesn’t stand still and like many other things, housing needs evolve. At some point, those life events become more important than the interest rate on your mortgage. And when that happens, the decision to move becomes obvious. Now, whether what we’re seeing is the beginning of a longer-term shift or simply a release of pent-up supply is still too early to know. The next few months should give us a much better picture of where the market is headed. So if you're thinking about buying or selling—or simply you’re trying to understand what today's market means for your own plans—this is a great time to start putting together a strategy. My team and I use real data from our Northwest Multiple Listing Service, proven systems, and years of local market experience and insights to help our clients make confident decisions and maximize their results. And remember, when you work with us, you're also helping support Akin, an amazing nonprofit that helps children and families throughout our community. Your business and your referrals truly make a difference, and that's something we're incredibly proud of. For a no-obligation consultation—or if you'd simply like to bounce around some ideas—reach out by email, text, or, my favorite, a good old-fashioned phone call at 206-779-9808. That's 206-779-9808. Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and follow for more updates. And be sure to check out the full July newsletter at Weisbarth.com/newsletter. I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Enjoy the rest of your summer, and I'll see you next month.