Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Welcome to my December 2023 Market Update!
Today, I want to share some unexpected advice, especially coming from a real estate professional. You might expect me to encourage you to sell your home right away, right? Well, bear with me.
If you've been following my newsletters, you've seen variations of the graph I'm about to present. I've extended the data back to 2018 to enhance the visual impact, but the patterns I'm about to discuss have been unfolding for well over a decade.
The graph illustrates the market activity cycle for single-family homes in King County. The orange line represents Closed Sale data. Focus on the areas highlighted in yellow, which is the first quarter of each year. The annual pattern is unmistakable – you see a surge in activity at the beginning of each year, peaking around spring or early summer, followed by a decline in market activity towards the end of the year. Some years, we've observed a smaller second surge in the fall, but not always.
By the way, these patterns in King County are reflective of trends in other counties in our area and extend to the cities, towns, and the broader Greater Seattle region. So, if you want to look at this graph and read my report at your pace and leisure, you’ll find all this information in my December newsletter, available online and for download, for free, at Weisbarth.com/Newsletter, that’s Weisbarth.com/Newsletter.
Now, pay attention to the blue line representing Median Sale Prices, and again, focus on the area highlighted in yellow, which is the first quarter of the year. What you’ll notice is the consistent pattern of price increases at the start of each year, with some years experiencing almost astonishing appreciation, like this year and the two years prioir. Notably, this trend persisted even in the aftermath of years marked by declines in both market activity and prices, such as in the downward trend that we saw just last year, 2022, or in 2018. It almost seems like the market resets itself at the beginning of each year.
As for whether this pattern will repeat in the first part of 2024, well, I’m sure you understand, that's something I can't predict with certainty. All I can tell you is that, as I mentioned above, this exact same pattern has been repeating itself, without fail, well over a decade now.
It would be helpful to understand the driving forces behind these robust price appreciation. The main force is the significant influx of new buyers precisely when the number of listings is at its lowest. This creates the widest gap between the supply of homes for sale in the market, and demand for those homes.
Now, considering the downward trend in mortgage interest rates over the past few weeks, once they dip below the 7% mark, I anticipate the return of previous buyers who may have stepped back from the home search earlier this year, thereby further boosting demand.
The point of all of this is that, as in many other aspects of life, timing plays a crucial role in determining outcomes. As you can see, when it comes to selling your home, strategic timing could make a substantial difference in how much money ends up in your pocket when the deal is done.
So, If you, or someone you know, is seriously considering selling a home in the coming year, please share this information with them, as it can make the difference in their decision process and their timing. The path to a lucrative home sale begins with informed decisions that are based on facts! And that’s what my team and I love to do – educate and inform, so that our clients can make the best decisions that will maximize their results. We offer a no-obligation consultation, so there’s no pressure – we want you to decide to work with us because you think that we are the best people to represent you on your home sale.
And remember that as we contribute a substantial portion of our income to the amazing Childhaven, your business and referrals go to help the kids in need.
It's easy to refer your friends, family and colleagues to us by email, or on my website at weisbarth.com/refer. The best way to refer is to just connect us by phone. My number is 206-779-9808, and I’m always happy to speak with new people.
Please remember to like, subscribe and follow for more great insights, charts and tips on my monthly vlog, and read our monthly newsletter at Weisbarth.com/Newsletter.
Thanks for tuning in to my December market update. Have a wonderful Holiday and a very Happy New Year! I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. See you next month!