Is Seattle Real Estate Really Falling? Here's What the Data Says | June Vlog Real Estate Update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbD-p_LrRMk

 Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates, and welcome to my June 2026 Market Update!

I don't normally spend much time responding to media coverage of real estate.

Part of that is because market data and headlines often serve two very different purposes. One is trying to inform you. The other is trying to get you to click. And let's be honest, a headline that says, "The Seattle housing market is behaving pretty much the way it usually does" isn't going to set the internet on fire.

But over the past few weeks I've seen several articles suggesting that Seattle-area home prices are falling, that the market is weakening, and people are leaving Seattle and King County in large numbers. And after seeing enough of those stories, I found myself wondering whether we were all looking at the same data.

Because when I pull up the actual date from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data, which is the source of where all these housing numbers come from in the first place, I see a very different picture.

Let me show you what I'm seeing.

So, if all those headlines were correct, I'd expect to see buyer activity falling, prices softening, homes sitting on the market longer, and generally a market that was struggling to find its footing.

Instead, what I see is pending sales reaching their highest level in about three years. We see median home prices continuing to trend upward. And we see homes selling relatively quickly, with the median home spending just seven days on the market. All this is suggesting that the market is actually very, very active. The buyers are out there shopping. 

Now, I want to be careful here because I'm not suggesting that every home sells in seven days or that every segment of the market is equally strong. Real estate is always more nuanced than that. But when I step back and look at the broader picture, to me it doesn't look much like a market in decline. 

And that's where context becomes really important.

You see, real estate markets have seasonal patterns. Inventory rises and falls throughout the year. Buyer and seller activity rises and falls throughout the year. Prices accelerate and then level off and then accelerate again. And withing that larger seasonal and consumer behavior patterns there are still more subtle variations. That is normal.

The problem is that if you ignore those patterns, it's surprisingly easy to create a narrative that sounds convincing, but isn't actually telling the whole story—and certainly not the correct story.

Compare the wrong months. Focus on a single statistic. Ignore seasonality. And suddenly you can make a healthy market look troubled.

That's one of the reasons I spend so much time looking at month-over-month trends an well as at longer-term trends, instead of relying entirely on a simple year-over-year comparisons. The context matters every bit as much as the numbers themselves.

And just as importantly, you need to understand what's influencing buyer and seller behavior at different times of the year. The numbers matter, of course, but so does the psychology behind those numbers.

And honestly, to me, the most remarkable part of this entire story isn't that the market is strong.

It's that the market is behaving so normally.

Think about everything we've been through over the past year or so. Inflation concerns. Interest-rate uncertainty. Tariffs. Stock market volatility. Wars. Political drama. Tech layoffs.

There has been no shortage of reasons for buyers and sellers to feel nervous.

And yet somehow the Greater Seattle area housing market continues to follow many of the same seasonal patterns that we've seen for well over a decade. 

That's actually pretty remarkable when you think about it.

By the way, if you'd like to look at these charts yourself and dig deeper into the data, you can find my complete June newsletter online and available for free download at Weisbarth.com /newsletter. That's Weisbarth.com /newsletter.

One of the arguments I've seen lately is that inventory is rising and therefore the market must be weakening.

At first glance, that sounds reasonable. After all, if there are more homes for sale, doesn't that mean demand must be falling?

Well... not necessarily.

I was curious to see how today's inventory compares to what we considered normal before all the craziness of the past few years, and what I found was that inventory is still below much of what we saw throughout the 2010s.

In other words, yes, buyers have more choices today than they've had recently. But that's very different from saying we suddenly have too many homes for sale.

In fact, for years one of the biggest complaints from buyers was that there weren't enough homes to choose from. They'd wait for a home to come on the market, rush out to see it, compete against ten other buyers, lose, and then start the process all over again.

Okay, my clients would actually win those multiple bids most of the time, but that's a different story. Thank you, you can hold your applause.

A little more inventory isn't necessarily a sign of trouble. In many ways it's a sign of a healthier and more balanced market. Buyers have a better chance of finding the right home, sellers still have active demand, and the market functions more efficiently because people can actually compare options instead of fighting over the same handful of listings.

And then there was another headline that caught my attention.

The idea that people are leaving Seattle and King County in droves. Come on....

Whenever I hear a claim like that, my first instinct is usually the same: let's go look at the numbers.

And when I did, I found that Seattle very recently surpassed 800,000 residents after adding roughly 11,500 residents over the past year. In fact, Seattle remains one of the fastest-growing major cities in the entire nation, even if that growth isn't quite as dramatic as it was during some of the boom years.

To me, that doesn't sound much like a city that's emptying out.

So the broader story continues to be one of growth rather than decline.

Which brings us back to where we started.

The more I looked into these stories, the more I kept coming back to the same conclusion: the headlines and the data simply aren't telling the same story.

The headlines tell a story of decline.

The data tells a story of a market that continues to be strong and behave remarkably normally. Almost boringly so.

And honestly, I think that's the real story.

Despite all the uncertainty, despite all the noise, despite all the reasons people have to feel nervous, the local housing market continues to behave in a surprisingly normal and seasonally predictable way.

And that's important because buying and selling homes isn't just about economics. It's also about psychology. It's about how people feel about their situation today and about their confidence in their future.

You've heard me say this many times before: a confused mind will do nothing.

And what's not often said is that when confusion causes us to freeze, we tend to assume that everyone else is doing the same thing.

But life doesn't really work that way, does it?

People still get married. People still get divorced. Families grow, kids leave home, jobs change, people retire, and sometimes people simply wake up one morning and realize the house that worked perfectly a few years ago doesn't really fit their lifestyle anymore.

Life keeps moving forward whether the headlines are optimistic or pessimistic. And because of that, housing demand tends to keep moving forward too.

So if you're thinking about buying or selling this year—or if you know someone who is—I would encourage you to focus a little less on the headlines and a little more on the underlying data. Because that's where the real story is.

My team and I use real NWMLS data, proven systems, and years of local market insights and experience to help our clients make confident decisions that maximize their results.

And remember, when you work with us, you're also helping support Akin, an amazing nonprofit that helps kids and families in need thrive. Your business and your referrals make a real difference in our community, and we're incredibly proud to be part of that mission.

For a no-obligation consultation—or if you'd simply like to bounce around some ideas—reach out to me by email, text, or, my favorite, a good old-fashioned phone call at 206-779-9808. That's 206-779-9808.

Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and follow for more updates, and be sure to check out the full June newsletter at Weisbarth.com /newsletter.

I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Welcome to summer, welcome World Cup, and I'll see you next month.