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Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Happy New Year, and welcome to my January 2024 Market Update! Today, we're taking a glimpse into the future—specifically, Seattle real estate market in 2024. I’m about to share my ironclad predictions for the Seattle real estate market for this coming year.  Now, before you roll your eyes and think, "Not another prediction, Doron," I promise you, I'm not relying on a crystal ball or a wizard wand. Instead, I'm drawing on my deep understanding of our local market, on historical data that create a definite pattern, and on recent observations of buyer and seller behavior. So… Let's dive right in!  First off, let's dispel the myth that all real estate is the same. It’s not! I hear all these pundits who make predictions for the national real estate trends in 2024, and I really have to scratch my head sometime. The truth is that all real estate is local! In our beloved Seattle, we often dance to our own beat, thumbing our noses at national trends. Why? Blame it on the unique topography – we have the sound in the west, mountains on the east, a large lake in the middle, and very few open lots left anymore. And, of course, we have our unique circumstances, with a large number of people who are still moving to our area for high-paying jobs. All these make our real estate market as distinct as our iconic skyline. So don’t fall into the trap of projecting national news onto our local real estate market.  Now, onto the pillars of this real estate saga: supply and demand. Yes, I've said it countless times before, but these forces are the maestros dictating pricing, market dynamics, and the overall real estate narrative. And who is the protagonist in this story? You—the discerning consumer. Interestingly, as we bid adieu to the holiday season, a surge in buyer activity has caught my and my teammate’s attention. We believe this surge mirrors the drop in mortgage interest rates below the 7% mark. I mentioned this in last month’s vlog, that the 7% mark, seemingly a psychological threshold has energized buyers, especially when housing inventory is traditionally low. Rising rent costs in the region and companies urging employees to return to the office are further fueling this increasing demand. Now, on the supply side, sellers remain relatively scarce. Last year, many sellers who needed to sell in order to adjust to life events, such as a growing family, empty nesters, job relocation, etc., these sellers held off from putting their homes on the market because of the high interest rates. On the one hand, they were worried that the high rate would scare buyers away, which would leave them selling their homes for less. On the other hand, if you’re selling a home, many times you have to buy another one, and they were not willing to trade their low interest rates for much higher ones.  But, as you know, life goes on, and these life events still drive a good amount of the decisions people make regarding selling their homes.  And so, even sellers cautious about trading their historically low mortgage rates are likely to find encouragement in the ongoing decline in interest rates. To be clear, while we're not expecting a flood of new listings, a more substantial inventory compared to 2023 is very likely on the horizon for 2024. So, what can we anticipate in terms of market movements?  The multi-year trend observed in the first quarter of each year suggests a familiar pattern: robust demand and limited supply, resulting in a more pronounced increase in home prices. I highlighted the first quarter of each year to help you see how these trends repeat every year. And while I’m only showing you data that goes back five year, I could have gone back twelve years or more, and you would have easily seen the same pattern playing out every year. Then, as spring ushers in more inventory, we anticipate a moderation in price appreciation. Barring significant economic shifts, or inflation spikes, the ongoing decline in interest rates should create favorable conditions for both buyers and sellers. By the way, if you want to look at this graph and read my report at your pace and leisure, you’ll find all this information in my January newsletter, available online and for download, for free, at Weisbarth.com/Newsletter , that’s Weisbarth.com/Newsletter . So, in conclusion, 2024 promises to be a more favorable year compared to 2023. While we may not experience the same level of activity seen in recent years, there's every indication that the market will follow its familiar rhythm.  Now, if you or someone you know has made a New Year’s resolution to sell and or buy a home this year, consider this your invitation to reach out for education about the process, the market, and the specifics of your situation. My team and I are here to provide education and guidance, ensuring informed decisions to maximize your results. And let’s face it – you have to educate yourself if you want to get the most from this big move. We offer a no-obligation consultation. It would be improper and immoral to ask anyone to make a decision about such a big move before  they had the appropriate education, don’t you think? And the good news is that it's easy to refer your friends, family and colleagues to us by email, or on my website at weisbarth.com/refer . The best way to refer is to just connect us by phone. My number is 206-779-9808, and I’m always happy to speak with new people, truly.  And don’t forget that your business and referrals help the kids at Childhaven!

Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Welcome to my December 2023 Market Update! Today, I want to share some unexpected advice, especially coming from a real estate professional. You might expect me to encourage you to sell your home right away, right? Well, bear with me. If you've been following my newsletters, you've seen variations of the graph I'm about to present. I've extended the data back to 2018 to enhance the visual impact, but the patterns I'm about to discuss have been unfolding for well over a decade. The graph illustrates the market activity cycle for single-family homes in King County. The orange line represents Closed Sale data. Focus on the areas highlighted in yellow, which is the first quarter of each year. The annual pattern is unmistakable – you see a surge in activity at the beginning of each year, peaking around spring or early summer, followed by a decline in market activity towards the end of the year. Some years, we've observed a smaller second surge in the fall, but not always.  By the way, these patterns in King County are reflective of trends in other counties in our area and extend to the cities, towns, and the broader Greater Seattle region. So, if you want to look at this graph and read my report at your pace and leisure, you’ll find all this information in my December newsletter, available online and for download, for free, at Weisbarth.com/Newsletter , that’s Weisbarth.com/Newsletter . Now, pay attention to the blue line representing Median Sale Prices, and again, focus on the area highlighted in yellow, which is the first quarter of the year. What you’ll notice is the consistent pattern of price increases at the start of each year, with some years experiencing almost astonishing appreciation, like this year and the two years prioir. Notably, this trend persisted even in the aftermath of years marked by declines in both market activity and prices, such as in the downward trend that we saw just last year, 2022, or in 2018. It almost seems like the market resets itself at the beginning of each year.  As for whether this pattern will repeat in the first part of 2024, well, I’m sure you understand, that's something I can't predict with certainty. All I can tell you is that, as I mentioned above, this exact same pattern has been repeating itself, without fail, well over a decade now.  It would be helpful to understand the driving forces behind these robust price appreciation. The main force is the significant influx of new buyers precisely when the number of listings is at its lowest. This creates the widest gap between the supply of homes for sale in the market, and demand for those homes.  Now, considering the downward trend in mortgage interest rates over the past few weeks, once they dip below the 7% mark, I anticipate the return of previous buyers who may have stepped back from the home search earlier this year, thereby further boosting demand. The point of all of this is that, as in many other aspects of life, timing plays a crucial role in determining outcomes. As you can see, when it comes to selling your home, strategic timing could make a substantial difference in how much money ends up in your pocket when the deal is done.  So, If you, or someone you know, is seriously considering selling a home in the coming year, please share this information with them, as it can make the difference in their decision process and their timing. The path to a lucrative home sale begins with informed decisions that are based on facts! And that’s what my team and I love to do – educate and inform, so that our clients can make the best decisions that will maximize their results. We offer a no-obligation consultation, so there’s no pressure – we want you to decide to work with us because you think that we are the best people to represent you on your home sale.  And remember that as we contribute a substantial portion of our income to the amazing Childhaven, your business and referrals go to help the kids in need. It's easy to refer your friends, family and colleagues to us by email, or on my website at weisbarth.com/refer . The best way to refer is to just connect us by phone. My number is 206-779-9808, and I’m always happy to speak with new people.  Please remember to like, subscribe and follow for more great insights, charts and tips on my monthly vlog, and read our monthly newsletter at Weisbarth.com/Newsletter .  Thanks for tuning in to my December market update. Have a wonderful Holiday and a very Happy New Year! I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. See you next month!

Hi, I’m Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. Welcome to my November 2023 Market Update! As 2023 winds down, the market activity trends are looking fairly predictable for our market. As noted in past vlogs and newsletters, despite the high interest rates and other uncertainties, prices have held fairly steady over the last few months. Now, I want to note that while I’ll be showing charts with data that was compiled from the past few years, I want you to focus not so much on year-over-year comparisons, but rather on the data from the past few months. You’ve heard me say this before, that 2023 had been a very atypical year, so year-over-year comparisons may not be as meaningful. In past vlogs I usually showed you data from King County, and then told you how the trends that we see in the data for King County also held true for Pierce and Snohomish Counties, and I’m sure for other counties in Washington State, particularly counties in Western Washington. So I thought that this month I’ll actually show you the data for all three counties, so that you can see for yourself how they compare. I’m going to show you three graphs, each comparing data for single family homes in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties in one of three categories: Median Sales Prices New Listings Closed Sales And again, when you look at these three graphs, remember to focus not just on the year-over-year trends, but also on how specifically the trends look for just the past few months. So to make that easier, I highlighted the period between April and October of this year in each graph. Okay, let’s get started! The first graph illustrates the median sales prices for single family homes, showing a consistent pattern across the three counties. Despite variations, market prices in each county have remained mostly steady over the past few months. The second graph focuses on the number of new listings. Remember – 2023 had been a very odd year, with much slower activity than previous years. And you can clearly see this in the graph, with the overall number of new listings being much smaller than in past years, across the three counties. While there is a decline since the peak in the spring of this year, it nevertheless aligns with the typical seasonal trend. The third and last graph represents closed sales. And again, you can clearly see the significantly slower market activity this year, compared to past years. However, unlike past years, where the market activity would drop significantly compared to the spring of that year, in 2023 we see that the market activity, albeit slower, is pretty steady. The point here is that there are still plenty of buyers out there who are eager to find a good home. By the way, if you want to look at all this information and read my report at your pace and leisure, you’ll find all this information in my November newsletter, available online and for download, for free, at Weisbarth.com/Newsletter, that’s Weisbarth.com/Newsletter. The takeaway from all of this is pretty simple – a steady market means steady activity for those wishing to sell, especially due to the persistent low inventory, and despite the high interest rates and other market uncertainties. If you know someone who is looking to sell or buy, don't hesitate to refer them to our team. Even if they’re not yet sure about their timeline, we love to educate our clients so that by the time that they are ready, they can proceed with greater confidence. Please share this vlog and our newsletter – hardcopy or online at weisbarth.com/newsletter. And here's a little reminder – a good portion of our income goes to support the kids at Childhaven. So your referrals and your business help those kids in need. I’m proud to report that Weisbarth and Associates was the key supporter of the Childhaven annual gala that was held last month at the Hyatt hotel in Bellevue. Our team brough 42 guests – incredible – and combined we raised over $40,000 for this amazing organization. Thank you all for your ongoing support! It's easy to refer your friends, family and colleagues to us by email, or on my website and weisbarth.com/refer. The best way is to just connect us by phone. My number is 206-779-9808, and I’m always happy to speak with people. If you find this vlog helpful, please like, subscribe, and follow for more insights, tips and charts that I share every month. Thanks for tuning in to this November market update. I'm Doron Weisbarth with Weisbarth & Associates. See you next month!